The September ATOL renewal is the larger of the two annual licence renewal periods, with around 60% of licences renewed during this window. The latest data, published by the Civil Aviation Authority on 2nd October, provides an important barometer of the travel industry’s performance and this year’s figures highlight signs of a market beginning to level off.
Key ATOL renewal data
According to the CAA’s data, the industry recorded an overall increase of 0.881% in authorised passenger numbers, bringing the total to 34,761,861 passengers*. While this marks modest growth, it also reflects a slowing trend compared with previous years, where September renewals typically showed much stronger year-on-year expansion.
This aligns with broader industry commentary that the UK travel market may be reaching capacity, with demand growth moderating after several years of recovery and expansion.
Performance of the major travel operators
Among the leading ATOL licence holders, there are varied strategies at play:
- Jet2 Holidays retained its top spot, maintaining the same licence numbers as the previous year. This cautious stance is likely linked to softer winter booking trends (source: FT).
- TUI increased passenger numbers by 1.55%, holding firm in second position.
- EasyJet Holidays recorded the strongest growth, adding an extra 400,298 seats, equivalent to 13.1% growth.
- We Love Holidays and On the Beach renewed at the same licence levels as last year, signalling a steady-state approach in line with capacity concerns.
In total, 1,606 businesses are currently licensed under the ATOL scheme. However, 45 companies listed on List 1 are yet to renew, either due to outstanding conditions or applications still in progress.
*please note our analysis excludes ATOL to ATOL sales.
Industry insights: capacity and consumer behaviour
Commenting on the renewals, Zoe Powell, Director of Travel Regulatory at Xeinadin, noted:
“It is interesting to see that there was a small increase in overall licence numbers following the conclusion of the September ATOL renewals. There remains caution in the industry with an increase in late bookings and customers demanding more value for money. Despite this, there still remains strong demand for ATOL-protected packages with consumers choosing ease of booking under one roof and knowing they get customer protection.”
This consumer trend reflects a wider market shift: travellers continue to value convenience and financial protection, even while booking later and pushing for more competitive pricing.
What this means for the travel industry
- Market maturity: The modest growth suggests the industry may be moving into a more mature phase, where competition will be defined less by expansion and more by differentiation.
- Value-driven consumers: Operators must be agile in responding to late bookings and price sensitivity, ensuring package deals remain attractive without eroding margins.
- Resilient demand for ATOL protection: Even with slowing growth, the importance of ATOL protection remains a strong driver of consumer trust and loyalty.
Conclusion
The September ATOL renewal cycle has provided valuable insight into the state of the UK travel sector. While the pace of growth has slowed, consumer appetite for ATOL-protected packages remains strong. For travel businesses, the challenge ahead lies in adapting to a more competitive, value-focused market while maintaining the trust and protection that consumers continue to prioritise.
